Baccarat — The Tie Bet Labelled in the Same Type Size as the Others
Full punto banco drawing rules under an infinite-deck model, measured over two hundred thousand rounds at page load. Banker and player sit close together near the lowest edges on any casino floor. The tie is far worse than either, and the interface says so on the button.
Format: Punto banco · full third-card drawing rules · Demonstrates: Per-bet returns that differ, disclosed per button
Play it freeRun the audit yourself
The machine
| Rules | Standard punto banco third-card table, applied in full |
|---|---|
| Deck model | Infinite deck — no shoe depletion, so no counting develops |
| Bets | Banker · Player · Tie, each with its own measured return |
| Basis of the figure | Measured, not exact. 200,000 rounds simulated in-browser at load |
| Why measured | The drawing rules are conditional, so a closed form is possible but ugly; sampling at this volume is tighter than the number is printed to |
Three bets on one table, three different returns
Baccarat is often described as having a low house edge, and that is true of two of its three bets. Banker and player are among the best propositions in a casino. The tie, priced at 8:1 where the fair price is closer to 9.5:1, is one of the worst — and it sits on the same felt, in the same interface, one button away.
Each button here carries its own measured return rather than the table carrying a single headline figure. That is the disclosure a player needs at the moment of the decision, and it is the moment casinos are least inclined to provide it.
Measured, and labelled as measured
This game’s figures are sampled, not solved. The third-card rules are conditional on both hands, which makes the exact calculation possible but unpleasant, and two hundred thousand rounds at load is more than tight enough for the decimal places shown.
Eight of the twelve games on this platform publish exact returns and are labelled exact. This one is labelled measured. Keeping that distinction visible is more useful than making every figure look equally authoritative — an earlier version of this page implied published exact edges, which was a small overstatement in the direction that flatters the platform.
The mathematics
Basis: measured. Sampled in your browser at page load and published with the interval that sample earned.
Full third-card drawing rules under an infinite-deck model, measured over
200,000 rounds at page load. The drawing rules are the game — they are
not a house convention layered on top of it — and they are what makes banker and player differ at
all.
| Bet | Pays | Return | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker | 1.95× | 98.90% | ±0.41 |
| Player | 2× | 98.81% | ±0.42 |
| Tie | 9× | 85.85% | ±1.16 |
The three bets do not share a return, and the gap is not small. Banker and
player sit within a fraction of a point of each other. Tie returns about
13 points less than either — a difference far larger than any
strategic choice available anywhere else on this platform.
Banker’s 5% commission is why it pays 1.95× rather than 2×. Without
that commission banker would be the better bet outright, which is precisely why the commission
exists. A table that pays banker even money without commission is not being generous; it is
changing a different number.
These are measurements, so they carry intervals. The eight exact games on this platform do not,
and that distinction is the point of the labelling.
What the gate does before the game loads
Nine states have enacted statutory bans on the sweepstakes casino model, and six more closed their markets by enforcement without passing anything. Every one of those instruments turns on redeemable value. This platform has none, so it stays lawful in all fifty — but the geo-gate still names the statute, because a compliance claim that cannot be checked against a citation is a marketing claim.
Select New Jersey and the gate blocks the lobby citing A5447/S4282. Select Oklahoma and it plays, with an amber banner recording that SB 1589 takes effect on 1 November 2026. The distinction between an enacted ban and a ban in force is the sort of thing operators discover late; here it is in the interface, fed by the same weekly-verified database as the state tracker.