Baccarat — the odds, computed

Published return

player 98.81% · banker 98.9% · tie 85.85%measured

Computed at load from the game’s own constants — the same source the casino itself uses to pay. Nothing on this line is typed by hand.

Measured rather than closed-form, so it carries a sampling interval rather than being exact to the last decimal.

Derived — check the arithmetic yourself

Real baccarat with a 5% banker commission: banker ~1.2%, player ~1.1%, tie ~14%.

• MEASURED, not closed-form: 2M coups through the drawing rules this table actually deals, from a fixed seed so the figure is reproducible.
• Roulette above is exact arithmetic. This one is a simulation, so it carries a sampling wobble of about a tenth of a point — which is why it is quoted to one decimal, not four.
• P(banker) 45.78% · P(player) 44.68% · P(tie) 9.55%
• Banker: you lose 44.68% of decided coups and win 45.78% at 0.95 after the 5% — a 1.19% edge.
• The tie pays 9 but lands 9.55% of the time: a 14.1% edge, about 12 times worse than banker, and it is the bet every floor pushes hardest.
• Assumes each card is drawn independently. A real eight-deck shoe is slightly different: the flat bets move by under a tenth of a point, the tie by more, because a tie depends on exact card counts and depletion bites hardest there. Stated rather than glossed — the assumption is part of the derivation.

Our banker bet carries the same 5% commission, so this figure is ours as well as theirs.

The interactive odds explorer and bankroll simulator for Baccarat let you change the stake and see the expected value move, computed live from the same constants.

Open the Baccarat explorer →